Bureaucratic Politics in Foreign Policy-Making: A Case Study of Pakistan Policy Towards Afghan Taliban, 1996-2016

Abstract

This research seeks to explain Pakistan‟s foreign policy decisions towards Afghan Taliban from 1996-2016. The study analyses the decision making process, involving the bureaucrats of foreign office and security establishment while dealing with three major policy decisions. 1) Extending recognition to Afghan Taliban Regime in May 1997; 2) Parting ways with Afghan Taliban in October 2001, after 9/11 incident in USA; and 3) Joining Quadrilateral Coordination Group for Afghan peace process in December 2015. The central hypothesis of the thesis is that Pakistan foreign policy outcomes to deal with Afghan Taliban from 1996 to 2016 were mainly impacted by the bureaucratic politics among civil and military bureaucrats. The first part of the thesis pertains to reviewing the literature on bureaucratic politics in decision making; with special reference to Pakistan‟s foreign policy projections towards Afghanistan. Then the theoretical and conceptual framework is explained to develop an understanding of Pakistan‟s foreign policy making structure and policy formulation process. The prism of Pakistan foreign policy from 1996 to 2016 has been analyzed with special reference to the leadership roles of the political elite, civil bureaucracy and military bureaucracy, operating within the prevailing internal and external environment relevant to the given case studies. In this background, the study evaluates various policy alternatives with the dominant consideration of policy decisional pursuits. It seeks to reconstruct the decision making process while deciphering the construction of alternatives in a competitive environment under the tenant of bureaucratic politics through pulling and hauling. The pertinent evidence to relevant case studies is sought through interviews (primary source) from the specific senior political, civil and security hierarchy, responsible for major policy decisions towards Afghan Taliban. The study determines the preferential considerations (security, economic and political) towards rational decisions in developing consensus about the ultimate aggregated decision to serve the national interests. It does so by capturing the perceptions and developing preferences by decision players though their presented stances or positions while entering in a decision game; which were different to what they got adjusted for the final aggregated decision outcome. The nature of squeezing others decision space by the “influence potential” retained by respective player in any given decision making arena confirms the significant usefulness of Bureaucratic Politics Model in a developing country like Pakistan.