Climate, Water and Agriculture Nexus: Implications for Sustainable Rural Livelihood and Food Security in Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract

An increase in temperature and rainfall distribution is affecting the water demand for all economic sectors. In developing countries, crop, livestock, and particularly irrigation water is projected to be more vulnerable to climate change, thus affecting rural livelihood and food security. Growing population and increased demand for food have put pressure on water resources, crops, and livestock for future sustainability. Pakistan is facing the problems of water shortage, low crop yield and livestock productivity, meager livelihood, and intensive food insecurity. The current study was aimed to examine the impact of Climatic and Natural Hazards (CNHs) on irrigation water, crops, and livestock productivity in Punjab, Pakistan. It estimated interconnectivity among climate change, irrigation water, crops, and livestock productivity. The impact of nexus components on rural livelihood and food security was also assessed. The study used both primary and secondary data from the Rice Wheat Cropping System (RWCS) and the Cotton Wheat Cropping system (CWCS) of Punjab, Pakistan. Primary data were collected from 1080 farmers, using a well-structured questionnaire during 2020-21. A Likert scale was used to determine farmers’ perceptions and impact of CNHs on irrigation water, crops, livestock, rural livelihood, and food security. The study employed Binary Logistic Regression Model to identify the farmers' behavior to adopt different adaption strategies. In addition, to examine the interconnectivity and the effects of adaptation measures on the nexus components, Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) was used. The findings showed that farmers highly perceived the impact of CNHs on irrigation water, crops, livestock, rural livelihood, and food security. There was a significant reduction in the quantity and quality of irrigation water due to CNHs. In addition, the reduction of irrigation water availability declined the production of crops in both CWCS and RWCS. The livestock production was significantly affected by CNHs, which adversely affected the rural livelihood and food security. Farmers perceived that food security was directly affected by CNHs. To mitigate the adverse effects of various CNHs, farmers adapt different climate change adaptation measures. The results concluded that the adaptation strategies used by the farmers had a significant role in enhancing the productivity of irrigation water, crops, and livestock hence improving rural livelihood and food security. Similarly, adaptation measures are also effective in coping with the adversaries of CNHs on rural livelihood and food security. The findings of the path analysis proved that there is interconnectivity among the nexus components, i.e., irrigation water, crops, livestock, rural livelihood, and food security. All the nexus components are negatively affected directly by CNHs and found a positive relationship among them. The CWCS was affected more by CNHs than RWCS. It is suggested that the framer’s knowledge regarding CNHs and their impacts on the nexus components should be enhanced by educating them and improving the extension services. Government should finance to increase the adaptation measures to ensure sustainable irrigation water management, crops, livestock, rural livelihood, and food security.