Quantitative Study of Solar Activity Cycles in the Perspective of EI-NINO Southern Oscillation Data

Abstract

Magnetic changes on the sun causes the solar activity to occur. The solar activities have influenced on our Earth's ecumenical climate. These activities have a strong correlation with Sunspot‟s Coronal Index (CI) and reflect the activity of the sun's position with the coronal index energy. The dissertation has been formulated in four chapters, excluding the introduction, and closing chapter. Recently, a lot of research has been done with sunspots, although in this thesis, we have observed by Solar Earth's ecumenical impact of El- Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) fraternity with six CI cycle along with local rainfall. Chapter 1, The Solar- Earth’s climate activities are observed as the Long-Range Dependence (LRD). The Box-Counting technique is explained the roughness and the finality of Solar- Earth's ecumenical connections, defined by the FRACTAL and HURST values. The consistency of the rotational motion indicated that the slow fractional Brownian motion (fBm) shown locally low pass signals is dependent on a longer duration (LRD). Furthermore, comparing the two boundaries with fractal correlation and concluded that the ENSO (climatic activity) increases when CI activity is at lower thresholds and vice versa. Similarly, the local parameters of rainfall are also dependent, but Islamabad city has shown an intermediate dependence. Further rainfall stations (Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, Quetta and Islamabad) with ENSO regions developed a direct and inverse fractal linkages among them. Meaning is that some ENSO regions is effective for rainfall generation and some are less for rainfall. Based on these LRD‟s of parameters are helpful for future prognosis of datasets. Chapter 2, Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) testing at Daubechies (db 2) has been carried out at 5 levels to check for indications of high-time series fluctuations and periods. During filtration, fluctuations (unknown peaks) have been observed in the early and critical stages of the CI and ENSO cycles. Similarly, rainfall stations also decomposed and found the city of Islamabad has the highest frequency among all rainfall stations, while Karachi city is the weakest frequency station. In second phase of the chapter significant periodic intervals of these data are examined in the Global Wavelet Spectrum (GWS) by the Wavelet Power Spectrum. Representing a 95% significant interval. In this regard, we have introduced QBO with ENSO bands to xx observed local rainfall (Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, Quetta and Islamabad). The significant band shows ENSO 8 to 16 year‟s high periodicity were effective to produced rainfall 1 to 4 years higher periodicity bands specially Lahore and Islamabad while some have been observed to be neutral and dry. Similarly, QBO 4 to 8 year higher periodicity bands were effective in the last two decades have been seen to be effective in 1 to 4 year periodicity band of rainfall production. In overall, Islamabad city is the maximum moisture city observed among other rainfall station during significant band. Chapter 3, ARFIMA (p, d, q) modeling are applied Long and Short signals to high resolution. Two keyways of approaching (Direct and Whittle methods) under the criteria (AIC, BIC, HIC) have gone down. The ARFIMA (1, d, 1) models have been identified with both methods (direct and Whittle) although the most appropriate models are found at the least significant values at the Whittle closest. While CI, ENSO and Rainfall data are also determined by Heavy Tail. This means that long and smooth cycles are the end of the cycle, while there are fluctuations and noise in the main and recovery phases. Chapter 4, the time-lapse analysis is done as a Markov process, which is efficient for the memory process (present and future). We find the conditional probability of the solar (CI, Sunspot) and climate (ENSO, QBO, IOD and Rainfall) data and have been analyzed in 3x3 transition matrix. Markov's procedure relies on time-stationary parameters, and the matrix algebra confirms the stability of the forthcoming chain. In addition to rainfall cases in the study, intermittent behavior of each parameter was also detected. The reason is that high diagonal entries indicate the default migration. With further data (ENSO, QBO, IOD), CI (1950 to 2016) has established telecommunication together with two-dimensional communication. Furthermore, the continuous relationship between the CI and ENSO cycles is shown through two dimensional correlation. Also, the return period is found between the expected periods (1 and 2) to higher states 3. (CI, sunspot and ENSO), the key finding, is the delivery relationship because CI is a good candidate for expressing solar activity like a sun's place. (CI-sunspot), (sunspot - ENSO) and (CI-ENSO) series of contacts are found as follows. xxi

Through this technique, we have also looked at the relationship between ENSO events (El Nino, La Nino, and non-active ENSO) with CI data. Because of the two dimensional relationship with (El Nino -CI) and (inactive (ENSO) - CI) strong observations have been observed, whereas La-Nano and CI are relatively strong. In addition, the expected number of visits (return period) is directly proportional to the El Nino -CI and vice versa, inversely with the La Nino -CI transition. This has shown that the coexistence of solar climate can help in the future prospects of solar energy using this new technique. In final chapter 5, delivers the summary key results, and future related work and conclusion of the dissertation.