Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/handle/123456789/16654
Title: Climate Change: Farmers' Perception, Adaptation and Impact on Agriculture in the Rainfed Areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-Pakistan
Authors: Ahmad, Rizwan
Keywords: Social Sciences
Rural Sociology
Issue Date: 2020
Publisher: The University of Agriculture, Peshawar
Abstract: Agriculture in many ways is affected by climate change particularly in rainfed areas. The instant study aimed at investigating farmers’ perceptions about change in climate, adaptation measures taken and the potential impacts on crop productivity. The study included wheat, maize and guara crops and districts selected were Mansehra and Lakki Marwat. Multi-stage sampling applied to select five Union Councils (UCs), one village council from each UC, one village from each village council and 328 households. The secondary data, spread over 30 years from 1984 to 2013 pertaining to temperature, precipitation, area under cultivation and yield of crops was collected. Analytical models used were Logit Model along with Chi-square test and ARDL Model. Regarding farmers perceptions, results show that farmer’s age and farming knowledge level were positively and significantly associated with perception. However, size of HH, farming types and area under cultivation are negatively associated. The Chi square results indicated that size of household, farming experience, education level, farm types and size of cultivated area showed significant association of farmer’s perception with regard to climate change.Regarding farmers’ adaptation measures, age of farmers, practicing mulching and farming experience were positively and significant associated with adaptation. Data on climate and farmers’ perception showed well awareness of farmers about variations in climate and their challenges. Most farmers demonstrated some adaptation measures which were mainly influenced by climate change perceptions. The results pertaining to impact of temperature and precipitation on wheat yield suggested long-run association of variables. Temperature is positively as well as significantly related in Mansehra but negatively and significantly related in case of Lakki Marwat. The precipitation was positive as well as significant for both the districts. Short-run relationship implied about 100%, deviations from long term equilibrium wereyearly adjusted in case of Mansehra and 73% in case of Lakki Marwat. The results of wheat area suggested long-run association of the variables depending upon F-Statistics value. Both temperature and precipitation were positively and in-significantly related to the area under wheat in case of Mansehra but negatively and significantly related in case of Lakki Marwat on long-run basis. The short-run association between wheat area and temperature and precipitation implied that arund 49% and 77% deviations of long-run equilibrium are to be adjusted each year in case of Mansehra and Lakki Marwat respectively. The results pertaining to maize yield suggested long term association of the variables. Both temperature and precipitation were positively and significantlyix linked with the maize yield on the basis of long-run. The short term analysis showed about 64% deviation of long-run equilibrium was accommodated yearly. Long run relationship also existed among the variables in case of maize area. Temperature was positively and significantly but precipitation was positively and insignificantly related to maize area under cultivation in the long run. The result regarding guara yield suggest that both temperature and precipitation were positively but insignificantly related to the guara yield while both temperature and precipitation were positively and significantly associated to the guara area on the basis of long term. Short term relationship showed about 67% deviation of long run equilibrium wasyearly adjusted in case of yield and 88% in case of area. Based on objectives of the research study and field findings recommendations offered include; the farmers awareness drive, policies to promote adaptation measures, enhancing farmers’ adaptive capacity to strengthen local resilience, making meteorological information available to farmers, design research plans to evolve crops varieties addressing changing climatic challenges, and further research to estimate range of temperature and precipitation within which crops under study perform better.
Gov't Doc #: 21539
URI: http://prr.hec.gov.pk/jspui/handle/123456789/16654
Appears in Collections:PhD Thesis of All Public / Private Sector Universities / DAIs.

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